It’s hard to take Kid Rock seriously. I mean, the guy was once subpoenaed to produce a glass dildo as evidence in an Insane Clown Posse lawsuit. So of course, his recent claim that he was running for Senate was met with a healthy dose of skepticism. But we live in a world where Donald Trump is now the president of the United States, and if Kid Rock’s political ambitions are indeed real, as he insists they are, then his path to election is even easier than Trump’s was, according to a newly published analysis on Politico.

“Presuming Kid Rock doesn’t get caught in bed with a little boy, or beat up a woman between now and August 2018, he’s going to win the nomination if he gets in,” says Dennis Lennox, a Republican political consultant in Michigan. “I think there’s no question about that. I think he’s the prohibitive favorite if he gets in.” Saul Anuzis, former chairman of the Michigan GOP, thinks he might even have a shot at beating Democratic incumbent Debbie Stabenow. “The fact that he’s non-traditional is appealing to a lot of people. Obviously it scares others who want someone more predictable,” he says. “But if you’re going to beat an entrenched candidate like Debbie Stabenow in a purple state, you need to do something different. He’s well-liked in Michigan. He’s a hometown darling. He’s got deep connections to Detroit. He’s done a lot throughout the state. Anybody who’s writing him off is making a mistake.”

Democratic strategist Joshua Pugh, however, who has worked numerous Michigan campaigns and who used to serve as the state party’s communications director, isn’t worried. “Some Democrats in D.C. are freaking out because he would scramble the playbook,” he says. “It would scramble the playbook. But I’m still not concerned if I’m Debbie Stabenow.” That said, the fact that this is even something that’s being discussed is cause for plenty concern.